Adding Swin Cash (right) to the roster via trade this off-season will certainly help the Chicago Sky in their attempt to make the playoffs for the first time, but Courtney Vandersloot's continued development as a pro point guard will also be critical. Photo by Kailas Images.
Swish Appeal regular and resident Washington Mystics fan thewiz06 takes a look at "Category 2 teams: teams built for the postseason, but not the WNBA title just yet". See Part 1 of his series of guest posts for a look at all the categories and where teams fit.
The following are what I call "Category 2" teams.
I believe that these teams are talented enough to aim for the playoffs in 2012, but probably aren't championship caliber yet. Then again, I don't think that most people thought the Minnesota Lynx would win the WNBA championship last year with flying colors, so perhaps you can expect one of these teams to be called a championship contender if its chemistry is really good this year and one of the Category 1 teams has chemistry or injury issues.
Why Postseason in 2012
Two reasons: First, the roster has the talent, and last year, the Sky showed that it was capable of making
the playoffs, though it eventually ended the year with five straight losses. Second, the franchise will start to be viewed as a pariah if it doesn't. I know that this reason isn't really basketball related, but it is disappointing to see that Chicago has not made a single playoff run since its founding in 2006.
The Sky earned the 2nd pick in the 2012 draft, but traded it to the Storm for Swin Cash and Le'Coe Willingham. Cash especially should help shore up the frontcourt and fill in a need at SF assuming she can forget about her off performances in the 2nd half of last season. The backcourt looks intriguing with Prince and Vandersloot. This year, the Sky will make the playoffs if Fowles continues her MVP caliber of play that we saw last year.
I don't see the Sky winning it all in 2012 mainly because there will still be some growing pains with Vandersloot as she gets used to running a WNBA offense while still getting her fair share of open shots. I also don't know if they can keep both Kraayeveld and Michelle Snow who are both unrestricted free agents (UFA's). There is a slight chance Fowles leaves the Sky, but I doubt it when clear moves have been made to get the team into the postseason now.
If the Sky misses the playoffs, there is a 75% chance that it will get the rights to Griner/Delle Donne/ Diggins which could mean a Minnesota like turnaround for 2013. However, if I'm a Sky fan, this year HAS to be the year that it makes the playoffs, and it would be very disappointing to miss it again.
Why Postseason in 2012
Last year, this team presumably had the talent to get into the playoffs in the really deep Western Conference but was shut out. This year, along with young stars like Candace Parker, Kristi Toliver, and Jantel Lavender, the team could add Nnemkadi Ogwumike (assuming there are no surprises) with the #1 pick, who should solidify the foundation of the "young core." I assume that some of the "old core" (Ticha/Tina/DeLisha) will stay and this should be good enough to get the team into the post season.
My concern with this team being a serious championship contender is that the Sparks need to acquire more youth, especially on the perimeter where players like Ticha Penicheiro and Delisha Milton-Jones are 35 and up now. The old core of this team is only getting older and further away from their glory years, though to be fair, I believe that both Ticha and Tina signed with the Sparks after their previous teams folded. Still, I don't care how healthy they can be, but age is a detriment when multiple players are together past their early 30's and never made the Finals consistently.
While I could very easily say that this team needs to blow it up, that is premature, because there is the young core, which is the foundation of the Sparks for the 2010's. I think that there will be enough talent on this roster to make the playoffs, so long as Parker stays healthy for a whole season. I also doubt that the team can just send all three of the old core players out of town for palatable trade options, so some of them will stay and mentor the young core, and this is a good thing. Even with the young core, the team may be a bit too deep in the front court, unless they want to slide Candace to the wing, assuming they draft Ogwumike. Fortunately for the Sparks, Candace can play every position competently and will be a scary matchup wherever she is, provided that she is healthy.
Why Postseason in 2012
The Libs have a top five player that they traded for in Cappie Pondexter and she alone could carry them to the post season. There is good talent from the perimeter (Cappie/Carson/Powell) and the interior (Pierson/Vaughn). The entire roster last year was 30 or younger, and this year, assuming they make no changes, only two players are 30 (both core players) are older with Plenette Pierson and Nicole Powell hitting this milestone.
Though Liberty fans could make an argument that the team is a championship contender, the post presence is not at the level of the two Eastern Conference category one teams (ATL and CT). Also we have to know that the team suffered a big blow with Janel McCarville not playing for them last year, though it is remotely possible she could be back here, right?
The Liberty could very easily be a super-team if Sue leaves the Storm to play here. It's not a coincidence if this happens because she is from the NYC area. Even then, the Libs could still use some extra depth at the low post. My gut tells me this team is one player away from being in category one, but who knows what happens this summer if they can get a top low post player and if Sue leaves Seattle to come back home?
Why Postseason in 2012
The Stars have some young talent - especially Danielle Adams, but also Danielle Robinson - who play with some current WNBA stars like Becky Hammon and Sophia Young.
Even taking out the old point guards (Becky will be 34, if Tully's back, she'll hit the 4-0), the talents of the team as constructed still isn't up there with Minny and Phoenix and this pretty much goes all around. However, Dan Hughes is a great coach and pulled a rabbit out of the hat when he drafted Danielle Adams, who was the clear rookie of the year for much of last season until she was sidelined for a few games with a foot injury.
Unless there are some breakout seasons or considerable improvements by the younger Stars like Appel, Robinson, and even Adams (everyone can improve at a young age), the Stars will not get past the first round this season, though I think the young players do have upside over the next several years. Even if they all improve, I think that Minny and Phoenix are just more talented than the Stars right now so I'm not keeping my hopes up on seeing them in the Finals this year.
0 recs | 14 comments
Sue leaving Seattle? No way!
WNBA fans outside Seattle don’t get it. Sue’s home is Seattle, not NYC. As she’s said a few times-she lives in Seattle, her mom lives in NYC.
Sue has said many times she wants to play her whole career in Seattle. She has never given anyone any reason to doubt her sincerity. If Agler had any doubt she would re-sign, he would’ve cored her. But he didn’t.
So for those in Phoenix, NYC, or anywhere else who thought they had a shot at Sue-not going to happen.
wbb fan - January 31, 2012
"If Agler had any doubt she would re-sign, he would’ve cored her. But he didn’t."
I’d agree…
(Also, I deleted your first comment assuming you intended this one as an edit)
Nate Parham - January 31, 2012
thanks
My computer decided to freeze as I was editing…
wbb fan - January 31, 2012
I agree with you that I don't think Sue isn't just going to leave for nothing
but she is an unrestricted free agent, so she is allowed to leave like LeBron did. With that, nearly every team, if not every team (Connecticut and Minny clearly do not need her) is going to call her agent.
thewiz06 - January 31, 2012
not for nothing...
Not for anything! She has everthing she wants in Seattle, including a brand new home.
wbb fan - January 31, 2012
oops!
I meant “everything”
wbb fan - January 31, 2012
even though sue could leave as a free agent
if she wears another uniform, it will likely be because of a trade. I would have said the same things you said about Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler but then the downfall of the Wizards was admittedly much more catastrophic and tragic than the Storm’s is (if they have a downfall).
The Seattle piece will come out soon and you probably won’t agree with much of it, but I know you won’t be the only one.
thewiz06 - January 31, 2012
Sue doesn't have an all-star
National Team small forward. Like she used to.
ttdomi - January 31, 2012
Kia Vaughn had a better year in 2011 than McCarville had in 2010.
That’s hardly any kind of “big blow” to the Libs—“Oh no! We got more production out of our starter this year than we got out of our starter last year? EMERGENCY!!!!”. Nah, more like McCarville deciding to not show was a blessing in disguise. Kia shot better, rebounded better, scored more points, and turned the ball over less than McCarville did the year before.
In fact, McCarville has never had a season in which she averaged as many rebounds as Vaughn had last year (6.7 rpg for Kia, compared to a career-best 5.9 for Janel in 2010).
So, yeah, she could still come back…as Kia’s backup off the bench. :P But the Libs now have Braxton, who may have greater statistical production per-minute than McCarville.
Shannon Cotterell - January 31, 2012
from hindsight, you're right.
sometimes, these things work out for the best. Scary thing about Vaughn is that she’s only 25 so her best ball is ahead of her.
thewiz06 - January 31, 2012
Eh, if you've been following Kia for any length of time it didn't take hindsight
She was due to take that step up. Just needed to get her feet back under her.
Shannon Cotterell - February 1, 2012
Both articles
missing “Should” from the title.
ttdomi - January 31, 2012
Seriously, this is what passes for analysis now?
I expect better than this from Swish Appeal. The Sky should be a playoff team because if not, people will view them as a pariah. The Libs have some talent but they really could be good if they got Sue Bird. Just like last week, Phoenix is poised to win right now especially if they get Sue Bird. You know what, ANY team would become an immediate contender if they landed Bird. So if you eliminate that bit of wisdom, why is Phoenix a win-it-now contender…with ANDREA RILEY as their point guard? And similarly why are the Libs a playoff team when their point guard situation is similarly questionable?
Your analysis of the 8 teams so far is based on two things: roster age and the fact that Sue Bird is unsigned. You assume that Sue would consider offers because, you know, that’s what free agents do. So, here’s some knowledge you don’t have: 1) Sue Bird now considers and calls Seattle home. Not NY. 2) Sue may have DT as a friend but she has two dear ones in the Seattle org: LJ and Adia Barnes. 3) Sue already gets paid the absolute max. She has the coach’s and owners’ ear, she has total control in her current situation. Mind you, I am not saying it is a done deal to re-sign but you seem to write as if it’s a given that she’s seeking greener pastures.
I cannot wait to hear why you have lumped in the Fever and Storm with the Shock and Mystics in the “wait for next year” category. I’m sure the Storm stars being over 30 and Sue Bird, you know, leaving is one reason but what did the Fever do? At least they have a point guard or two.
tollick - February 1, 2012
First, I appreciate your comment and I'll address some things you wrote.
Yes, roster age is huge part of my thinking, in fact, it’s the biggest thing in terms of looking at a team’s championship window. Individual players, both men and women play their best ball in their late 20’s to early 30’s and they will decline after that. Second, team chemistry and how players have played over the last year and how teams played as a unit was a big part too. That I didn’t emphasize enough. The fact that Sue is a UFA is going to make other teams want her, and you can’t blame them. With these eight teams, they all probably had some internal conversation in their front offices about her, and they should. In regards to whether she wants to leave there or not, I didn’t want to leave that impression per se, but by mentioning her a lot with these teams, I understand why. I agree with what you said about her calling Seattle home, and with LJ and Adia as her best friends, but I still think the other factors are valid as well.
Rebuilding doesn’t equal “let’s suck and wait.” If it’s done correctly and with shrewd acquisitions, perhaps a rebuilding team could always stay in the playoff hunt at worst or maybe it may not even miss the playoffs at all. 8 of 12 teams make the playoffs in the WNBA, unlike the NBA where 16 of 30 teams make the playoffs. At the same time, a rebuilding team shouldn’t consider missing the playoffs a total failure either, especially with a deep draft class for next year, unless Delle Donne goes pro, and that is unlikely as of now.
I can understand why a lot of, if not most people don’t think the Storm or the Fever should be put in the same category as the Shock and the Mystics let alone being put into the same sentence. I get that it can be taken as an insult too to the fans of those teams especially. However, all four of those teams in the last category should focus on how they can have sustained success in the future, rather than building to win now. That is what I mean by rebuilding.
thewiz06 - February 1, 2012
You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of Swish Appeal to post a comment.