When I spoke with Silver Stars General Manager Dan Hughes in February, he was very clear about the fact that the team needed rebounding help.
San Antonio Free Agency Breakdown: An Opportunity to Fill Rebounding Needs - Swish Appeal
With a roster that included two of the league’s top 5 scorers in 2009 (guard Becky Hammon and forward Sophia Young) as well as the player with the third highest field goal percentage (center Ann Wauters) finding someone to score was certainly not a problem. However, despite playing a style of team basketball that would please most basketball purists, they weren’t exactly perfect last season.The Silver Stars finished last in rebounding differential last season (-4.0), last in defensive rebounding percentage (67.8%), and third from last in offensive rebounding percentage (25.4%). In other words, it could be said that rebounding was by far the team’s biggest weakness.
"It is an area of concern and we will try to address it through free agency," said Hughes. "I do think it’s something we would like to address."
Rather than addressing the concern through free agency, the Silver Stars have bolstered their rebounding by trading for Michelle Snow.
Although Snow only averaged 4.26 rebounds per game (just inside the top 50 in the WNBA) in 2009, she was 7th in total rebounding percentage. As one of the best all-around rebounders in the league when on the court, she's a solid fit for the Silver Stars.
Most importantly is what this means for the Silver Stars' big picture.
I'm not sure what the media voters were thinking when they voted for the Pac-10 awards, but the coaches -- perhaps people who have actually bothered to watch the players play -- seem to have gotten things right, especially with the Defensive Player of the Year selecting Briana Gilbreath and Ros Gold-Onwude.
That is by no means a slight on Ify Ibekwe. However, Gilbreath is one of the most versatile defenders in the conference and Gold-Onwude is hands down the best lock down perimeter defender.
Let's review the Hall of Fame Probability calculator from our previous post. The calculator, used by Basketball-Reference.com, attempts to determine the probability of a given NBA player making the Naismith Hall of Fame given the player's statistics and accomplishments. I've always been interested in extending this calculator to the WNBA, and now I've finally been able to do it. pilight provided the MVP shares data and made some suggestions that I've incorporated into the final product.
Of course, the WNBA and the NBA are not the same. Extending WNBA data to an NBA metric required overcoming some problems. As we go through the metric, we'll explain the glitches and the resolutions to those problems.
Another problem - not really a problem, if you think about it - is that Hall of Fame selection for basketball depends upon factors other than one's pro career, regardless if one examines Naismith HOF or Women's Basketball HOF criteria. Contributions in college ball and the international career of a player can be considered whereas the HOF probability calculator ignores each of those. In the end, the number yielded by the HOF probability calculator is the probability that a player would make the (in our case) a hypothetical women's pro basketball HOF solely based on her professional career statistics. In real life, a player could have a probability significantly less than 100 percent but might be assured HOF selection given a strong college career or a coaching career - the HOF considers all contributions made by a player to the sport.
With that in mind, let's look at each of the factors in the linear metric used by Basketball-Reference.com and check them for relevance.
As Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus and the Seattle Storm wrote citing Dean Oliver in his summary of the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this past weekend, "Individuals see a basketball game better than the numbers...but the numbers see all the games."
However, in reading the flood of reports and tweets from the Dorkapalooza and thinking about how they might apply to the WNBA, one comment in particular from a new friend of the WNBA stood out: "I'd like to congratulate everyone here for breaking the record for most dudes in one room."
Of course, the comment doesn't necessarily mean that the stat movement is "male only", but it did lead me to wonder, to what extent are WNBA decision-makers influenced by statistics? What is the state of basketball analytics in the WNBA?
Coincidentally, during an interview with Swish Appeal yesterday morning, I was struck by Washington Mystics General Manager Angela Taylor's use of statistics -- she referred to statistics far more frequently and fluidly without my prompting than other coaches and executives I've spoken with. During our conversation, she referred at various times to offensive rebounding percentage, free throw rates, plus/minus and assessed player development by referencing statistical trends. Granted, she might be predisposed to thinking quantitatively -- she has a degree in Economics from Stanford University and was previously the Minnesota Lynx's Vice President of Business Operations. Nevertheless, her answer
"I think numbers don't lie," said Taylor. "So for both coach [Julie] Plank and I you have to look at the numbers. I think trends to look at plus/minuses after games. You can look at different rotations and lineups that play well together in certain circumstances and scenarios. It probably kind of distracts me from the nerves I have so I'll dig deeply into the numbers. But I do - I think it's important not to go overboard with the numbers, but I think it's important to be aware of different areas statistically where you can get better because I think that does paint the picture a lot of times when you're just looking anecdotally and kinda let your emotions make more decisions. So it's nice to dig into the numbers."
Therefore, the question becomes not whether WNBA executives are using statistics -- it would seem unlikely that Taylor is the only one who actively uses statistics in her decision making.
Looking at the progression of the "stat movement" in the NBA, the question for the WNBA is who will take advantage of statistics first?
The link above is worth a read as information with which to respond to people who say women's sports and/or Title IX hurt universities because they don't generate revenue.
"There’s something wrong with that concept – that somehow or another, intercollegiate athletics is failing because it’s not paying its way," Renfro said at the workshop, which was held on the campus of the Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. "Take a look at a campus and take a look at the number of departments that don’t even come close to paying their way. They exist because the university believes it’s important to have those departments.
"What you have in higher education is a very complex system of cross-subsidization. There are a few areas in a few places that make a lot of money. Those monies are used to help pay for those other things that universities believe they must have if they’re going to have comprehensive university.
Imagine, for example, if people said we should cut history departments because they weren't profitable. That sounds rather Orwellian and thus frightening to me.
Who? The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State. Sometimes called the Jacks, but if you refer to the school as SDSU, don't confuse them with San Diego State; that tends to irk their fans.
Where? Brookings, SD, in the eastern part of the state.
When? Tuesday the 9th, in Sioux Falls, SD.
How? It took overtime after giving up a seven-point halftime lead, but the Jackrabbits clamped down on D to hold on, 79-75.
Upset? Yes. Oral Roberts had won the conference regular season by one game over SDSU and Oakland.
RPI: 111
SOS: 198
It might have been a less than stellar season by South Dakota State standards, due to the graduation of a great senior class, but in the clutch, never count out Aaron Johnston's team. For their second year in a row, they'll be representing the Summit League (formerly known as the Mid-Continent Conference, if you were wondering).
Senior forward Maria Boever, a first-team selection in the Summit League, leads her team in scoring and rebounding, putting up 14.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. She gets help from senior forward Ketty Cornemann, who does a bit of everything, and junior guard Kristin Rotert, who does a bit more of everything. Ten players average double-digit minutes for SDSU.
Out-of-conference, their worst loss is to Illinois State. They have good wins against Gonzaga and Middle Tennessee in a couple of mid-major deathmatches. They stayed close against Arizona, Virginia, and Iowa. Turnovers nearly came back to haunt them against Oral Roberts, and those could be their Achilles heel in the tournament.
Who? The Huskies of UConn. NOT the Lady Huskies; we all know what a lady husky is, and it ain't appropriate for television.
Where? Storrs, CT; "They used to call it Store, but then they built another one."
When? Tuesday the 9th in Hartford, CT
How? Just another day at the office; after letting West Virginia stay within 10 at the half, they held the Mountaineers to 12 second-half points to win 60-32.
Upset? No. UConn hasn't lost since George W. Bush was president. They finished Big East play three games ahead of West Virginia and Georgetown.
RPI: 1
SOS: 2
UConn leads the nation in scoring... defense. As high-octane as their offense is, and as slick as their passing is, their defense tends to get lost in the shuffle. But they harry their opponents into 30.7% shooting and hold them to 47.2 points per game. They are efficient. They are merciless. They are really, really good.
18.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 51.2% shooting, and just over a block per game. The line of the conference player of the year? No, junior forward Maya Moore's statistics. It's senior center Tina Charles who won Big East Player of the Year, and who leads the team in scoring and rebounding with 18.6 and 9.4 respectively, shooting a blistering 64.7% from the field. And then there's the 11.9 points on 57.6% shooting of senior guard Kalana Greene. (Yes, guard. Yes, 57.6% shooting. And that includes some well-timed three-pointers.) And then there are the deep threats of sophomore guards Tiffany Hayes and Caroline Doty. And that guy on the bench with the smart mouth is a pretty nice asset to have; as much as Auriemma is known for his personality and his mouth, he's also an excellent coach who wrings the absolute last drop of greatness out of his players and plays the match-ups well.
Who? The Tigers of Princeton.
Where? Princeton, New Jersey, a picturesque town on its own branch of NJ Transit's Northeast Corridor line.
When? About 8PM on Saturday the 6th.
How? By beating Harvard for a season sweep of the second-place team in the conference.
Upset? By definition, no; the Ivy League is the last conference to resist the lure of a conference tournament, giving its auto-bid to the regular-season champion.
RPI: 46
SOS: 219
As any diligent student of the women's game knows, the most remarkable win in tournament history belongs to the Ivy League, when Allison Feaster's Harvard Crimson took advantage of a depleted Stanford Cardinal to notch a 71-67 victory in 1998, marking the only time a #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed in either the men's or the women's tournament.
Princeton will almost certainly not have an opportunity to repeat the feat... because the Tigers, with a stronger-than-normal out-of-conference schedule and an unblemished record in league play, have earned consideration for a higher seed than Harvard garnered in 1998. This will be their first trip to the NCAA tournament, and they have the tools to make their stay more than just forty minutes.
What has the difference been for the Tigers this season? Why have they gone from 14-14 with five conference losses last season to 21-2 and a run down the table this year? Coach Courtney Banghart has brought in two freshmen who play critical roles for this team. Point guard Lauren Polansky runs the team with a steady hand, averaging 2.5 assists per game and boasting an A/TO better than 2:1.
The buzz, however, has been around first-year forward Niveen Rasheed- and for good reason. She leads the team in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.7), assists (2.9), and steals (2.4). She gets to the line almost three times more often than anyone else on the Tigers and shoots better than 50% from the field. She's not afraid to mix it up inside, and she's smart enough to know when not to force it. (Makes sense for an Ivy League kid.)
But this isn't a one-woman show. Center Devona Allgood hits 58.4% of her shots and pulls down a touch under eight rebounds per game, while guards Lauren Edwards and Addie Micir both drain the long ball more than forty percent of the time. Allgood, Edwards, and Micir all average in double figures.
They only have two losses, against UCLA and Rutgers. Solid out-of-conference wins include Delaware, Drexel, and Houston.
Have you seen this Princeton team live and in person? Let us know what you thought of them!
